Bull Run or Bear Market? GPT-4o's Prediction for the S&P 500 by Year-End 2024

The US stock market is currently at an all-time high, with the S&P 500 index hovering around its record peak. Investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the sustainability of the current boom cycle and are wondering if a large correction—or worse, a bust—is imminent. The decision of whether to enter the market or stay on the sidelines is becoming more critical than choosing where to invest.

With this in mind, we decided to use OpenAI's most advanced AI model, GPT-4o, to predict the S&P 500's closing value on December 31st, 2024. In this essay, we will outline the technology, methodology, and results of this process.

S&P 500 is at an all-time high (July 23, 2024)
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What is the S&P 500?

The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that represents the market value of 500 large, publicly traded companies in the United States. It is widely considered to be a leading indicator of the overall health of the US stock market and economy.


Methodology:


Our goal was to leverage ChatGPT's file upload, code generation, and execution capabilities to generate the prediction. We downloaded the historical daily closing values of the S&P 500 index from January 3, 1978, to July 23, 2024 (the date of the prediction) from The Wall Street Journal's Market Data repository. We then asked the model to extrapolate the closing value for December 31, 2024.

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